Friday, March 13, 2009

FAS/FAZ roulette action

Purchased FAS at 2.45 on March 6th, and held to sell on March 12 at 4.50. I was happy with the trade, even though FAS closed at over $5 that day.

I purchased a decent chunk of FAZ in exchange @45.5 - a VERY stupid trade in hindsight, but I was hoping for a little pull back after such a big a run up. I held overnight, and sold today at 40.14 right at the end of the session to take a loss of $402, but my profits from FAS still leave me on top for the past week. If you're wondering why I didn't sell when it jumped during lunch, I was at a work event and so I couldn't adjust my limit order which was set at @46 - a tad too high. I find it very difficult commiting to a stop loss target with FAS/FAZ since they are so volatile, so I tend to set a higher limit.

Anyhow, Bernanke is giving an interview on Sunday night, which could make it an ugly Monday for shorts. I don't know how much higher we can go, but I don't have my rally hat on yet. The banks are saying they are making money - but their balance sheets are still a disaster. Even if there is new guidance for the application of M2M, and a reinstatement of the uptick rule, the US economy will continue to deteriorate.

In hindsight, the lesson of this trade, is NEVER to buy on impulse. I should have been more patient - and not let the earlier profits tempt me to enter a risky trade. While I've been lucky to catch a few intraday reversals, it's not worth the risk. Just gotta learn to sit it out sometimes and stay out.

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